Manassas Market Report – 4th Quarter of 2024
Q4 2024 CITY OF MANASSAS MARKET REPORT
The City of Manassas commercial real estate market is maintaining recent trends for regionally low vacancy and strong demand into the 4th quarter of 2024. The City experienced an all-time low vacancy of 1.9% in Q2 of 2024. That vacancy rate has up-ticked slightly to 3.6%, but still remains considerably lower than the Northern Virginia rate of 10.85%. Market rent continues an upward trend, now sitting at $21.75/square foot (sf) across all commercial property types. Sales prices dropped slightly from $220/sf last quarter to $219/sf in Q4.
Additionally, months to lease (4.3) and months vacant (4.8) dropped from last quarter, but months on market increased marginally from 7.5 to 8.1.
All three market types – industrial, retail, and office – increased slightly in vacancy, likely due to a pause in business decisions related to the presidential election in November. Of the three market types, only industrial saw a decrease in market rent.
Despite the continued nationwide challenges related to inflation, the strength of the City of Manassas’ commercial real estate market is likely attributed to the expanding Northern Virginia technology ecosystem, ongoing tourism attraction, and steady retail activity in the City’s most visited corridors.
This quarter, industrial real estate in the City increased to a 7.4% vacancy rate from the extremely low (near 0%) rate that was the norm of the past two years. As we reported last quarter, this is largely due to National Tire Wholesalers consolidating operations in the City, freeing up over 83.5K space for a sublease available immediately at 9073 Euclid Avenue (pictured here). That property is still available and we’re happy to assist companies or investors interested in the Manassas industrial market. Fortunately for operators, rent prices are showing some relief at a .26 cent decrease in rent price (now $15.82/sf) after climbing steadily through 2023 and part of 2024.
Flex vacancy maintains recent trends hitting yet another all-time low of .49%. Market rent increased to $17.33/sf from $16.63/sf last quarter.
Market sales prices for both property types have remained relatively stable since Q2 2022, and both increased exactly $3 from Q3 to Q4 2024. Flex now sits at $215/sf (same as Q2 2022) and industrial at $237/sf (compared to $240/sf in Q2 2022).
Notable developments include site work and early-stage construction for two new data centers, 256,000 square feet each, at 9496 Technology Drive.
The City’s ongoing focus on beautification and revitalization of commercial corridors has led to a consistently strong and growing retail market. A key example is the December 2024 opening of the City’s first Wawa convenience store, replacing several blighted buildings in the revitalizing Sudley Road medical corridor.
The 3.5% vacancy rate, though .1% higher than the Q3 2024 reporting, still slightly outperforms the regional average of 3.7%, which also experienced a .1% increase from Q3 2024. Market rent climbed to $28.06/sf this quarter (up from $27.80).
As mentioned in our last report, a majority of the City’s retail vacancy is attributed to the 140,000 sf Manassas Shopping Center, which is approximately 50% vacant. The City’s Economic Development Authority purchased the shopping center in November of 2024 with the intent to revitalize the Mathis Avenue corridor. Mathis Avenue serves as a gateway into the City and is envisioned as a connector of two Historic Districts in Manassas: Historic Downtown and Liberia House.
A stark contrast to Northern Virginia’s 18.5% office vacancy, Manassas continues a considerably low vacancy of 3.6% in available office space Citywide. Even with the slight uptick from last quarter’s 3.0% vacancy, a rate this low is compelling given the decrease in demand for corporate office space nationally. Market rent in the City has steadily trended upward since Q4 of 2020, increasing this quarter to $25.88/sf from $25.30/sf in Q3.
A notable office expansion took place last quarter at Manassas Regional Airport, the busiest regional airport in Virginia. Commonwealth Aviation merged with Aero Elite in 2023 effectively forming one of the largest flight schools in the East Coast. Pictured above is the November 2024 ribbon cutting celebrating Aero Elite’s expansion and new office at APP Jet Center. Businesses at the Manassas Regional Airport contribute over 1,300 jobs and $375 million to the Manassas economy each year.
New housing developments and in-fill projects are expected to continue Citywide, boding well for office real estate opportunities. Readers should keep an eye on this report and our bi-weekly newsletters for announcements.
